Wow. One hardly knows what to say and certainly virtually everybody in Washington needs to take an enormous dose of humility, particularly in our prognostications.

There will be time for lots of commentary and evaluation—join us on the November 16 webinar!! - but here are at least a few thoughts:

In terms of what happened yesterday, it appears that Mr. Trump –  and now that he is President-elect, a much more respectful tone is required – will receive fewer votes than Sen. McCain or Gov. Romney did when they lost. The Democrats did not get out the votes. African-American, Latino and younger voters failed to show up at the polls in sufficient numbers Tuesday to propel Clinton into the White House.  While she won the key demographic groups her campaign targeted, she underperformed President Obama across the board, even among women.
Trump mobilized enormous margins among rural and exurban voters, and crushing advantages among blue-collar whites. In several cases, he prevented Clinton from making as many gains among college-educated white voters as seemed possible. The Republican voters came back to the roost. That allowed Trump to overcome Clinton’s strong performance among minority voters and college-educated white women. Trump’s victory also upended long-standing political wisdom favoring candidates who raise more money and outspend their rivals. Trump was outraised and outspent by Clinton.

But however you feel about all this, you still have authorities to run. So what does  this mean for us? My initial take is whether or not Ryan survives as Speaker, the Republican control of the government will allow tax reform to move ahead. Both Mr. Trump's and Mr. Ryan's speeches last night emphasized that. Nobody's thinking that House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady's position is threatened, and he's been saying over and over that he is operating under the assumption that a House vote on tax reform bill in 2017 will be premised on the reforms that the GOP released in June. You recall that that blueprint probably is best interpreted to have eliminated tax-exempt bonds. Mr. Trump remolded his original tax plan to move toward House Republicans. His plan for massive infrastructure investments seems to be hinged on tax credits for private investment. Whether that would be in lieu of traditional municipal financing or not is unknown. Of course, the  same committees that work on this issue would have to figure out what they're going to do about Obama care which they now own whether they like it or not.

Tomorrow, I meet with the Public Finance Network of state and local government groups and issuers and part of the agenda certainly will be how to influence the transition planning as well as the new key administration officials, as they become known. There also is the very significant area of Mr. Trump’s stated commitment to unwind major portions of the Dodd Frank Act. What that would mean for the provisions that affect munis, such as the MA rule and some of the restrictions on investments by banks and mutual funds, also is unknown.
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So that's just a couple thoughts. There will be much, much more, and I hope you will join us on the November 16 webinar with my colleagues from ML Strategies who will attempt to sort this out with a bit more time to reflect.

Trump's Tax, Infrastructure Plan Jeopardize Tax Exemption for Munis
By Evan Fallor and Jack Casey and Lynn Hume
November 9, 2016

Both Donald Trump and House Republicans are pushing for tax reform plans that would lower individual and corporate tax rates and broaden the tax base, repealing or restricting tax deductions and exemptions.

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Muni Pros Bemoan Lack of Detail in Tax Plans for Infrastructure, Muni Exemption
Tax Credits Drive Trump's $1 Trillion Infrastructure Plan

WASHINGTON -- Donald Trump's presidency and the Republican-controlled Congress set the stage for historic tax reform and increased spending on infrastructure next year, which has the potential to jeopardize the tax exemption for municipal bonds, according to market participants.

Both Trump and House Republicans are pushing for tax reform plans that would lower individual and corporate tax rates and broaden the tax base, repealing or restricting tax deductions and exemptions.

"The win, because it means that the GOP will control the executive office and both houses of Congress, almost surely means the next Congress will act on major tax legislation focused on cutting rates," said Frank Shafroth, director of the Center for State and Local Government Leadership at George Mason University. "I would guess it will be the most significant, early bill signed into law by the new president."

"They're going to strike while the iron is hot," agreed Chuck Samuels, a partner at Mintz Levin.